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Photo: SuperAgronom.com
In the 2026/27 marketing year, Ukraine could harvest approximately 82-85 million tons of grain and oilseed crops. ASAP Agri estimates total production at 84.9 million tons, USDA at 82.5 million tons, and the Ukrainian Grain Association at 82.6 million tons.
This may surpass the result of the 2025/26 marketing year, which, according to various estimates, was between 77.9 and 80.6 million tons. Leading grain market analyst at ASAP Agri, Inna Stepanenko, informed Latifundist.com about this.
Wheat and barley are being actively harvested, and their yields currently significantly exceed last year’s figures. For barley, the indicators are record-breaking. At the same time, the final harvest will largely depend on late crops – corn, sunflower, and soybeans. According to ASAP Agri, in the south, they are already completing crop formation, while in the central and parts of the eastern regions, they are still flowering, so their potential will depend on the weather in August.
Steppe: Harvest potential has largely been formed
In the steppe zone, the condition of corn, sunflower, and soybeans is rated as good or very good. More favorable weather conditions and more accessible nitrogen fertilizers in winter allowed farmers to establish a high yield potential.
Corn in the south has largely finished flowering, and sunflowers look significantly better than last year, when the average yield in some steppe regions was only 0.6-0.8 tons per hectare.
The anticipated temperature increase in August to +35…+37 °C should no longer significantly impact yields in regions where the main crop formation phases are complete. Heat will most likely only accelerate crop maturation.
Odesa region and the South: Weather conditions are significantly better than last year
According to Stepanenko, in the Odesa region and other southern areas, the weather this season has been considerably more favorable. Temperatures did not cause critical damage to the crops, and timely rainfall helped avoid the widespread drought observed last year.
The condition of sunflowers is assessed positively, and farmers expect a much larger harvest of oilseeds. Overall, the southern regions can significantly improve the yield of late crops compared to 2025.
Dnipropetrovsk region: Rains improved prospects, but vegetation is lagging
In the Dnipropetrovsk region, corn and sunflowers are mostly in the flowering stage or nearing its completion, lagging in development by one to two weeks due to a cold spring. July rains have improved harvest prospects, so yields may be at or above last year’s level. However, the main risk remains the lack of heat at the end of summer, which could increase the moisture content of corn grain and the costs of its drying.
Kharkiv region: Late crops are significantly better than last year
In the Kharkiv region, corn and sunflowers are in various stages of flowering, and moisture reserves remain sufficient for now.
Unlike last year, when corn crops were already suffering from drought, this season they are maintaining a good condition. Current rains are favorable for corn and sunflowers, although rainfall during wheat maturation could have negatively affected its qualitative indicators.
Yields of late crops, particularly sunflowers, are expected to be higher than last year’s. However, the condition of the crops significantly depends on the hybrid, the plant protection system, and the specific location.
Vinnytsia region: The harvest will depend on August rains
In the Vinnytsia region, well-protected crops are generally in satisfactory condition. However, late-sown corn and sunflowers are just entering the flowering phase.
Therefore, the predicted heat in August up to +35…+36 °C could occur during the critical development period of the crops and cause flower abortion. For normal pollination, grain formation, and seed filling, the region needs at least one to two productive rains throughout August. The final harvest potential in the Vinnytsia region will become clearer only at the end of August or the beginning of September.
A large harvest intensifies logistical risks
A potentially large harvest could exacerbate export problems, according to analysts. According to UZA estimates, in the 2026/27 marketing year, Ukraine could potentially export about 52 million tons of grain and oilseed crops. However, achieving this forecast is only possible if deep-water navigation functions normally, as alternative routes cannot fully replace deep-water ports.
According to ASAP Agri’s calculations, the maximum monthly transshipment volume through Danube ports was about 2.5 million tons, while the record for transportation by road and rail reached approximately 2.2 million tons. These results were recorded in different periods and do not reflect the stable simultaneous throughput capacity of alternative logistics. For comparison, Ukraine’s deep-water ports can export up to 6 million tons of agricultural products per month.
“Even with favorable development of late crops, a large harvest does not guarantee high profitability for farmers. Limited export capabilities may lead to an accumulation of domestic stocks, increase the burden on elevator infrastructure, and put pressure on purchase prices,” concluded Stepanenko.
Olena Basanets, SuperAgronom.com
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