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Photo: SuperAgronom.com Harvest of corn
The near-complete halt in trade through seaports has led to a decline in grain prices in Ukraine and a sharp decrease in market liquidity. According to Spike Brokers, corn, food, and feed wheat have become cheaper over the week, and most producers are delaying the sale of the new harvest, anticipating the resumption of sea exports.
It is noted that over the week, the SPIKE CPT Odessa index for corn decreased to $200/ton (-$8), for food wheat to $198/ton (-$6), and for feed wheat to $188/ton (-$6). The FCA Chop index for corn adjusted to $228/ton (-$6), which also indicates subdued trading activity even on alternative export routes.
Meanwhile, trading activity for the new harvest of corn in the Ukrainian market remains limited.
“New deals in the direction of seaports have practically ceased, so CPT Odessa price levels are largely nominal and do not reflect a liquid market,” the statement reads.
A gradual revival is beginning to be observed in the Danube direction, to which exporters are reorienting logistics. The western border remains the main alternative export channel, although its capabilities are limited by both Ukrainian transshipment infrastructure and large-scale repair work on railway routes through the Czech Republic towards Italy and Germany.
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Buyers of the new harvest at the western border are quoting indicative prices of €205-207/ton with November-January delivery, but the number of concluded contracts remains insignificant. Most producers are adopting a wait-and-see approach, anticipating the resumption of sea exports and further development of the global market.
A similar situation is observed in the wheat market. After a sharp increase last week, global prices have begun to correct, but the security situation in the Black Sea region continues to be one of the key pricing factors.
Analysts note that until the stable operation of seaports is restored, the Ukrainian grain market will remain illiquid. Most producers are holding back from selling the new harvest, while exporters are developing alternative routes through Danube ports and the western border. Further price dynamics will largely depend on the situation with sea exports.
Melaniya Nesmachna, SuperAgronom.com
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