Through setbacks in the war against Ukraine, the Kremlin may resort to further escalation. According to the minister, the Baltic region and Poland are the closest targets.
Due to Russia’s failures in the war against Ukraine, the Kremlin might initiate further escalation, with the Baltic states and Poland being among the potential targets. This was stated by the Lithuanian Minister of National Defence, Arvydas Anušauskas, on LRT Radio, as reported by UNN.
Details
“The war in Ukraine is not proceeding as Russia had planned; they cannot win it, and explosions are occurring within Russia, there’s a shortage of fuel, and Russian society is already questioning the Kremlin’s regime, asking why this is happening and where the promised victory is,” Anušauskas noted.
In his opinion, this compels the Kremlin to seek new ways to demonstrate success. Therefore, Russia requires a new escalation.
“And the Baltic region, Poland, are the closest targets in this scenario,” Anušauskas stated.
The minister emphasized that Lithuanian intelligence agencies and the military analyze intelligence data daily and coordinate their actions with NATO partners to respond promptly to potential hybrid threats.
According to Anušauskas, Russia is increasingly employing aggressive rhetoric and making unsubstantiated accusations against the Baltic states. At the same time, he stressed that Lithuania is not taking any actions that could serve as a pretext for such statements.
“We are a sovereign country, we are part of NATO, part of the European Union, and we choose to strengthen our defense, reinforce our army, and enhance integration with Western civilized nations, and this should in no way provoke Russia,” the minister said.
Anušauskas also discussed plans to increase the number of conscripts. In 2026, Lithuania plans to involve approximately 5,000 individuals in compulsory initial military service, however, he mentioned that the country’s capabilities allow for an increase in this figure.
The minister clarified that an additional 530 citizens could potentially be drafted into the military this year. However, the final decision will depend on the army’s readiness to provide new recruits with the necessary infrastructure, equipment, and instructors.
According to Anušauskas, the issue of further expanding conscription will be discussed jointly with the Lithuanian Armed Forces command after an assessment of available resources.
The head of the Ministry of Defence also confirmed that Lithuania consistently coordinates its actions and potential response scenarios with its NATO allies. However, he declined to disclose details of joint plans, emphasizing that matters of Alliance security are resolved in close coordination among member states.