Куба – це черговий крок? Які плани у Трампа

Cubans at the Breaking Point?

Cuba is ablaze. No, not as a result of a US attack that Trump has announced under various pretexts over the past two months. There’s a coup happening there now: people are setting fire to the offices of the ruling Communist regime’s leadership.

The country is reeling from harsh political protests. It seems the regime, which has been known for decades for its ability to nip protests in the bud, no longer has control of the streets. Ordinary Cubans are united: after weeks without electricity, food shortages, and chronic poverty, they have nothing left to lose. Uprisings are flaring up in major cities like Ciego de Ávila and Morón.

How did it come to this, that people finally found the strength to rebel? How did they live before? Will the United States intervene, and what are Washington’s interests?

How and on What Cuba Survives

Last century, Cuba was actively supported by the Soviet government – it was its main ally in the Western Hemisphere.

“After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Cuba’s economy plunged into a deep crisis in the 90s. It eventually managed partial recovery, but the communist system remains economically inefficient. State-owned companies are corrupt and unprofitable. United States sanctions complicate the situation. Of course, the Cuban government tries to blame the American actions for the economic collapse, but in reality, this is only one of the factors,” explains Ivan Fechko, a leading expert on Latin America and the Caribbean at the Foreign Policy Council “Ukrainian Prism,” in a commentary to “Glavkom.”

Students protest Photo: reuters.com

As is well known, Cuba is currently experiencing an energy collapse – in recent weeks, there has been a complete blackout, without exaggeration. “All the power plants built in the 20th century with the help of the Soviet Union have not been modernized, and there is currently no funding to update them. In previous years, the Cuban authorities mistakenly directed investments not into modernizing industry and energy, but into tourism – to obtain easy money,” notes Fechko. According to him, huge, high-level five-star hotels do not save the situation, as tourists do not want to come to Cuba only to sit without electricity for 16-18 hours.

Furthermore, public transport is not functioning in the country – there is a huge problem with fuel shortages. At the beginning of the year, Cuba lost an ally – Venezuelan dictator Maduro.

“A year ago, Venezuela supplied Cuba with about 27,000 barrels of oil per day, covering half of Cuba’s needs. Now, this is gone. Additionally, some supplies used to come from Mexico, but this year there was only one – in January. After that, the Americans pressured Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, leaving Cuba in complete oil isolation. Russia made minimal occasional supplies, the last one being in October 2025,” adds Fechko.

People in Cuba live in poverty: average salary $1-2 per month Photo: unsplash.com

The energy crisis has hit all sectors hard. Even major national newspapers, which are mouthpieces of the government, are no longer published daily but weekly. Regional newspapers have ceased operations altogether.

“Overall, the Cuban economy has held up until recently on three pillars: tourism, humanitarian aid from other countries, and currency remittances from the large Cuban diaspora, primarily from the United States. Now, all of this is severely limited, and if Donald Trump and his administration increase pressure, for example, to block remittances, it will completely destroy the Cuban economy, which is already in collapse,” says the expert. According to him, young people are actively leaving the country: in recent years alone, Cuba’s population has decreased by 20%.

Protests in Cuba Photo: @brickell.news

Cuba’s Foreign Policy

Cuba has traditionally been hostile towards the United States and, at the same time, has actively cooperated with US adversaries: China, Russia, and to a lesser extent, Iran and North Korea. The Cuban regime has always been supported by Venezuela and Nicaragua.

These are all authoritarian countries whose ideologies are built on opposition to the United States. And the Cuban regime actively cooperated, particularly with Russia on military matters. For instance, we can recall how in 2024, during another escalation of tensions between the United States and Russia, Russia sent its warships to Cuba, allegedly for exercises. This was a form of pressure. By the way, Russia has a powerful radio-electronic intelligence center in Cuba, used for intercepting signals and monitoring communications in the region.

The successful US operation in Venezuela on January 3rd, which led to the swift arrest of dictator Nicolás Maduro, essentially signals the continuation of these actions in Cuba. On one hand, the Americans are inspired by their success. On the other hand, Cuba has lost its largest economic and military ally in Venezuela.

Putin and Cuban President Miguel Mario Díaz-Canel Photo: kremlin.ru

Cuba’s relations with Europe are very limited. Firstly, since the Cold War era, Cuba has been significantly economically and politically dependent on the Soviet Union. After the Soviet Union collapsed, Cuba tried to establish relations with other countries. Everything was complicated by the fact that the United States intensified sanctions imposed on Cuba from the 1990s onwards. Thus, the 1990s became years of hunger and shortages of everything from gasoline to shampoo for Cuba.

Secondly, the Cuban regime has not stopped restricting people’s rights and freedoms. Close cooperation between Cuba and Europe did not occur then, nor does it now. Therefore, European countries will not intervene on Cuba’s behalf in the event of US intervention.

Cuba and Ukraine

Historically, until the collapse of the USSR, Cuba cooperated with Soviet Ukraine at various levels, and many Cubans studied in Ukraine. After the collapse of the USSR, this cooperation continued. The Ukrainian diplomatic mission in Havana was opened in September 1993, and it was one of the first Ukrainian embassies in Latin America. Thus, the diplomatic priority for this direction was quite high.

Similarly, in return, Cuba was one of the few Latin American countries, alongside giants like Brazil, Mexico, and Argentina, that also had an embassy in Ukraine. Cubans provided us with assistance, for example, in dealing with the aftermath of the Chernobyl disaster. Ukraine sent children for treatment to Cuba because, despite all its economic problems, Cuba had a sufficiently high level of medicine.

When Russia launched its aggression against Ukraine in 2014, the Cuban government sided with Russia: at the UN General Assembly level, Havana voted against pro-Ukrainian resolutions. The Cuban government criticized Ukraine, blaming the Ukrainian authorities for the war unleashed by Russia in Ukraine, and helped Russia spread propaganda in Latin America. Notably, a branch of the propaganda media Russia Today operates in Cuba.

It is also important that Russia has been extensively recruiting Cubans in recent years for the war in Ukraine.

In response, Ukraine decided last year to close its embassy in Cuba. The resources spent on its maintenance will be redirected to another country in the Caribbean region – the Dominican Republic, with which we have excellent relations.

Cuban mercenaries fighting against Ukraine on the side of the Russian Federation: 38-year-old Julio Pelaez ended up in Ukrainian captivity Photo: radiosvoboda.org

The Russian Federation exploits the fact that the Cuban people are impoverished: sometimes the average monthly salary on the island is $1-2 per month. The economic situation in Cuba is extremely difficult, and this is primarily a consequence of the rule of the Cuban Communist Party, which created this system.

Cuba’s Internal Politics

All elections held in Cuba are a farce; there are no signs of democratic institutions. Effectively, only one party is permitted – the Communist Party. Just like in the Soviet Union. This system was established during the Cuban Revolution of 1959 when Fidel Castro came to power.

After Fidel Castro, power passed to his brother, Raúl Castro, in 2008, who ruled until 2018. After his departure, Miguel Mario Díaz-Canel Bermúdez became the head of state. However, he acts more as a manager of the communist system rather than a dictator with full power in his hands.

Fidel Castro Photo from open sources

The closest contact is maintained by advisors to US Secretary of State Marco Rubio with Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, the grandson of Raúl Castro, known as “El Cangrejo” (“The Crab” – due to a deformed finger). Currently, the United States is considering finding a figure within the Cuban regime who would be willing to cooperate. And partially reformatting the regime in Cuba, without a complete and immediate dismantling of the system.

Most Cuban opposition figures are located in the United States. “90% of the population in Cuba will joyfully welcome the fall of the Cuban regime. Firstly, the economic situation is terrible, and people have to survive without basic necessities. Secondly, government control and persecution persist, which oppresses the population,” believes Ivan Fechko.

What If Trump Attacks?

Most likely, in the event of an attack, Cuba will find itself alone against the US. Countries considered allies of Cuba, like Venezuela, have shown their inability to effectively counter the United States.

Russia has practically lost its geopolitical influence – and this is natural, as it has concentrated all its forces and resources on the war against Ukraine. Russia is essentially losing its allies one by one, on which it has spent vast sums for years – this includes Syria, Venezuela… Of course, Cuba had several other allies and partners in the region, but it lost them after internal changes in those countries.

Why Cuba Matters to Trump

As early as the beginning of March, the White House stated that the United States’ goal was not to use military force to overthrow the regime, recalls Natalia Shevchenko, a candidate of historical sciences, associate professor at the Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv, in a commentary to “Glavkom.”

According to the expert, it was expected that the regime would collapse on its own: either through democratic elections, or it would simply be swept away by a wave of popular protest caused by economic problems. Indeed, the US did not miscalculate here.

At the same time, Trump is not driven by a desire to establish democracy. Regarding Cuba, he has several reasons to intervene in the country’s affairs, asserts Shevchenko.

Firstly, Shevchenko emphasizes, Cuba is a historical tragedy for Americans. It is a matter of geopolitical challenge that the United States experienced in connection with the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis. “Back in the early 1960s, NATO had its missiles near the Soviet Union: in Turkey. Accordingly, the USSR decided to place missiles in Cuba. Therefore, now it is also a matter of a kind of ‘geopolitical revenge.’ At its core lies the Monroe Doctrine, which ensures the protection of United States interests in the Western Hemisphere, and the US, unlike Latin Americans, views its Monroe Doctrine as a ‘protective umbrella’ against any extra-regional influences (military, economic, ideological, etc.),” the expert reminds.

U-2 reconnaissance photo of Soviet nuclear missiles in Cuba during the Cuban Missile Crisis, 1962 Photo: wikipedia.org

Secondly, Shevchenko notes, Trump’s “thing” is that he is a businessman, and he seeks to create conditions for American business and protect its interests. “This concerns the ‘dollar diplomacy’ and ‘big stick policy,’ which were implemented by William Howard Taft and Theodore Roosevelt, respectively.

Essentially, the ‘big stick policy’ meant that the US took on the role of a regional policeman: regimes unacceptable to US national interests could be removed by force. And ‘dollar diplomacy’ involved creating conditions for investment, for protecting the interests of American businessmen in Latin America,” states Natalia Shevchenko.

The point is, explains the expert, that during his first administration, Trump raised the issue of the Cuban authorities’ illegal use of real estate that once belonged to American citizens, or the transfer of these properties for use by international businesses (Europeans, Canadians, Chinese, Latin Americans, etc.). At that time, the first lawsuits from American citizens also appeared in the courts.

What Real Estate Are We Talking About?

As early as the 1930s, during the US Prohibition era, Americans actively invested in the development of the hotel business in Cuba to gamble in casinos and have “alcohol tourism.” But with the establishment of the communist regime on the island in the early 1960s, all American property was nationalized by the Cubans – in fact, taken away from Americans.

The Cuban regime nationalized not only real estate but also an entire industry: sugar. It was built in Cuba by Americans – and Americans also lost it as a result of the revolution.

“Initially, some gradual payments were envisioned, but later, it was no longer discussed. And Donald Trump has not forgotten that the interests of American citizens were severely harmed at one time. Since the 90s, when Cuba lost the support of the Soviet Union, it has been seeking other investors. These became Spain, Canada, a number of Latin American states, and the People’s Republic of China. They actively used the existing infrastructure built by Americans. Company offices were located in that real estate,” recalls Shevchenko.

Cuban sugar industry workers, 1950s Photo from open sources

And Trump raised the question: “And who, excuse me, gave you the right to do that?” It was then that the first lawsuits from Americans, former owners, were filed regarding those companies that illegally, without their permission, use this property in Cuba. “These processes have been ongoing for years and will continue, like, for example, the case regarding compensation for Exxon Mobil’s assets, which is scheduled to be considered by the US Supreme Court, as reported by CNN last fall,” comments the historian.

Thirdly, Cubans who emigrated from the island to the US feel nostalgic. “And such Cubans, according to Trump, would like to invest in changes on the island. That is, Trump’s third motivation is the opportunity for Cubans to pour money into the economy of their native island,” notes Shevchenko.

However, arguably, the security aspect is the key factor in Trump’s decision. Cuba, due to its geographical location, was used by the Soviet Union in the past, and now by the Russian Federation and China, as a staging ground for intelligence activities. During the Soviet-Cuban friendship, a powerful radio-electronic intelligence center for data collection on the United States operated in the suburbs of Havana, Lourdes. Its value was that in case of the launch of intercontinental ballistic missiles by the United States, Soviet citizens would have about 7-10 minutes to descend into shelters. Statements are periodically heard in the State Duma of the Russian Federation regarding the need for Russia’s return to the former submarine maintenance base in Cienfuegos, in the east of the island. Currently, there is information that in recent years Russia has increased its presence of specialists related to radio electronics and IT technologies in Cuba. “That is, Russia plans to return to Cuba,” concludes Shevchenko.

Cienfuegos – not just a famous tourist spot Photo from open sources

Fourthly, China has its own interests regarding Cuba. In the summer of 2023, the Joe Biden Administration reported the deployment of Chinese spy radio-electronic equipment in several locations in the suburbs of Havana, as well as near the US base in Guantanamo.

“This is a naval base that the United States has been renting since the early 20th century. The point is that for the PRC, not only collecting intelligence on the US is crucial, but specifically collecting data on the United States’ space program. Rocket launches take place from Cape Canaveral. For the development of its space program, the Chinese need information: they obviously want to track launches and record various parameters of these rocket launches,” notes Natalia Shevchenko.

Colombian drug lord Pablo Escobar Photo from open sources

And the fifth point is that the US believes the Cuban regime is involved in drug trafficking into the US. “Back in the 1980s, information emerged about the links of Cuban high-ranking officials with Pablo Escobar’s Colombian Medellín Cartel. The US State Department included Cuba in the list of countries supporting terrorism (narco-terrorism) in the 1990s. A few days before the end of his term, Biden removed Cuba from the list, but Trump, upon returning to the White House, put it back. For Trump, the fight against drugs is currently the core of domestic US security and regional security, as evidenced by the ‘Shield of the Americas’ summit he recently held in the US,” adds the expert. Recall that the fight against drug trafficking became the official reason for the US invasion of Venezuela.

Natalia Sokirchuk, “Glavkom”

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